The developer profession is going through its worst stretch in a decade. Hiring is down, day rates are eroding, and on r/developpeurs, posts swing between panic and resignation. Yet when I talk to SMB founders, the story is radically different: they are desperately looking for technical talent. The problem is they are not looking for the same profiles as before.
- 📉 Shrinking market: -18% in IT executive hires in 2024 according to APEC.
- ⚡ AI as accelerator: AI did not create the crisis, it polarises the profession between decision-makers and executors.
- 🎯 Profiles in demand: SMBs want devs who own a product, not devs who just write code.
- 🏗️ Winning formula: technical skill + product vision + AI fluency = indispensable profile.
The dev market has flipped, and the crisis is not what you think
Why are the official numbers so brutal?
APEC data leaves no room for doubt: the IT sector recorded -18% in executive-level hires in 2024. According to Numeum, France's digital industry trade body, the sector shed 7,000 net jobs over the year, bringing employment back to 2022 levels. Junior profiles are the hardest hit, with 36% of companies expecting to cut graduate hiring in 2025.
These numbers did not come out of nowhere. The post-Covid era created a bubble: companies hired aggressively, freelancers cherry-picked their contracts, day rates climbed effortlessly. That era is over. The return to normal feels like a crash because the baseline was artificial.
The current crisis predates AI. This is a point many developers refuse to hear. According to Digital Extension's analysis, the contraction of the French market is primarily driven by structural factors: post-bubble correction, frozen investment, cautious enterprise buyers. AI did not create the problem. It accelerates it.
Which profiles are actually feeling the pressure?
On r/developpeurs, a recent post with 179 upvotes denounces the "brain death" of the community, which has become an "anxiety echo chamber" where every thread revolves around the dried-up market. The author makes a valid point: this permanent anxiety paralyses the very people who could adapt.
The reality on the ground is more nuanced than the Reddit feed suggests. The profiles that struggle share one trait: they define themselves by their ability to write code, not by their ability to solve business problems. A 30-year-old full-stack dev testifies on r/developpeurs: his contract is "incredibly interesting and extremely well paid," but he has two burnouts behind him. His problem is not the market. It is the absence of any vision beyond code.
What SMBs actually expect from a technical profile
How has the need changed?
The ADESATT study published in March 2025, picked up by CINOV, describes the fracture precisely. The developer profession is polarising into two camps. On one side, the "designers": those who architect systems, talk to clients, and translate a business need into technical logic. On the other, the "code producers": those who execute without a big-picture view.
SMBs have never had the luxury of large corporations. They cannot afford ten devs so that one of them makes decisions. They need every technical hire to also be a decision-maker. Stack choices, architecture trade-offs, balancing tech debt against time-to-market: that is daily life for a dev in an SMB. Not just writing clean code.
According to the BMO survey published by DARES, nearly 85% of digital-sector hires are rated "difficult" by recruiters. The shortage has not disappeared. It has shifted. Companies are drowning in CVs from devs who can code a feature. They struggle to find those who know why that feature exists.
How do you recognise a technical decision-maker?
A technical decision-maker is not defined by years of experience. They are defined by three traits: they understand the business need before touching code, they know how to push back on a poorly framed request, and they own the long-term consequences of their technical choices.
This is exactly what I see every day with my clients. SMBs that outsource development do not want to "buy dev days." They want a partner who can turn an idea into usable software, with the technical accountability that comes with it. The day rate becomes secondary when the person across the table knows how to own a product.
| Criterion | Executor | Technical decision-maker | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Relationship to client needs | Receives a ticket, codes | Questions, reframes, prioritises | ↑ growing demand |
| Tech debt management | Endures it | Arbitrates and plans | ↑ critical in SMBs |
| AI usage | Copy-pastes suggestions | Steers, validates, iterates | ↑ differentiator |
| Architectural autonomy | Waits for specs | Proposes and defends choices | ↑ severe shortage |
| Perceived value to the SMB | Interchangeable | Irreplaceable | ↓ for executors |
SOURCE: GoLive Software field synthesis · Updated 05/2026
AI accelerates the polarisation, with no mercy
Why does AI threaten executors more than decision-makers?
The International Labour Organization classifies developers among the professions with "very high exposure" to generative AI, combined with low task variability. In plain terms: standardised activities (writing code, fixing simple bugs, building components) are directly automatable.
Digital Extension takes the reasoning further: a developer properly equipped with AI can produce a complete feature, touching around fifteen files with tests and clean code, in 10 to 15 minutes. A dev with two to three years of experience now outputs like a six- or seven-year veteran. The skills premium drops mechanically.
Code has become a commodity. That is not my opinion, it is market reality. When a junior augmented by AI catches up with a mid-level in production volume, the only thing that still sets profiles apart is everything that is not code: understanding the need, making architecture calls, delivering a maintainable product.
Should you be afraid of vibe coding?
On r/developpeurs, a post with 26 upvotes poses the question head-on: "Vibe coding, AI… what should you focus on to stay relevant?" The top-voted reply puts things in perspective: "AI is autocomplete at level 9000. The better you code, the better you can judge and steer your LLM."
I share that view. Vibe coding is formidable for prototyping. For building a serious product, it remains dangerous without technical oversight. A non-engineer can generate snippets of code, but they cannot handle architecture, security, maintenance, bugs, and edge cases. The gap between an AI prototype and a maintainable product is precisely the technical decision-maker who is missing.
The ADESATT study confirms it: in some teams, up to 30% of code is already AI-assisted. The developer becomes an "augmented operator," but also a lonelier worker, left to fend for themselves with tools they did not choose. That is the worst-case scenario for an executor. It is the best case for a decision-maker who knows how to steer those tools.
How to stay on the right side of the divide
What skills should you build beyond code?
The list is short and there is nothing mysterious about it. Understand the client's business need. Know how to architect a system that will hold up in two years. Master AI as a productivity lever, not a crutch. Communicate technical choices to non-technical stakeholders. Take responsibility for the delivered result.
For a deeper look at the practical implications of AI on developers' daily work, the AI First blog covers hands-on use cases for tools and workflows.
What changes with AI is that these "soft" skills become "hard" skills. A dev who can steer an AI agent to produce clean code while keeping a firm grip on architecture and product coherence is objectively worth more than a senior dev who refuses to touch LLMs.
How does offshoring change the equation?
AI makes offshore teams even more competitive. A small, senior team that is well organised and AI-assisted can rival a much more expensive European team. This is not a threat to French developers. It is a reality that SMBs are already factoring into their decisions.
The winning formula for an SMB that wants to ship fast without blowing its budget: competent developers, augmented by AI, steered by someone who understands the need. That "someone" is the technical decision-maker. Not a project manager who does not code. Not a dev who does not decide. A hybrid profile who does both.
"The future belongs to augmented developers, not replaced ones. But 'augmented' does not mean 'assisted by Copilot': it means capable of deciding, architecting, and shipping a complete product."
Vincent Roye, May 2026
The SMBs that survive this transition will be the ones that stop looking for "developers" and start looking for "technical leads who can code." The job title does not matter. What matters is the mindset: someone who makes technical decisions and owns them, instead of waiting to be told what to do.
The developer career crisis is not an ending. It is a sorting. Executors are losing their place because AI does their work faster and cheaper. Technical decision-makers are becoming scarcer, more sought-after, and paradoxically more powerful thanks to the very same AI tools. Choosing your side has never been more urgent.
Frequently asked questions
Is the developer profession doomed by AI?
No. AI automates code production, not technical decision-making. Developers who can architect a system, understand a business need, and steer AI tools remain highly sought after. What is disappearing is the pure "code producer" role, the one who executes specs with no big-picture view.
Why is tech hiring down when companies say they lack talent?
The paradox comes down to a skills mismatch. Companies receive plenty of applications from profiles who can write code, but struggle to find those who can also decide, arbitrate, and deliver a complete product. According to France Travail, 85% of digital-sector hires are rated "difficult," not for lack of candidates, but for lack of the right profiles.
Can a junior developer still break into the current market?
Yes, provided they do not stop at code. A junior who understands the business need, uses AI as a productivity lever, and shows the ability to take technical initiative will stand out clearly. Bootcamps and short courses produce coders. The market wants product engineers.
Is offshore outsourcing a threat or an opportunity for French devs?
It is an opportunity for those who position themselves as technical decision-makers. SMBs that outsource are looking for someone on the French side who can frame the need, validate the architecture, and guarantee quality. This oversight and decision-making role becomes more strategic as remote teams gain productivity through AI.
How can a developer become a technical decision-maker?
By stepping beyond code. Join product discussions, understand why a feature exists before building it, propose technical alternatives instead of waiting for specs. AI accelerates this transition: it frees up time spent on mechanical production that can be reinvested in architectural thinking and business understanding.
Vidéos YouTube
Discussions Reddit
- Orientation : le dev est-il encore un métier d'avenir ? · r/developpeurs
- Complètement perdu dans ma carrière, besoin d'aide · r/developpeurs
- La mort cérébrale d'une communauté tech francophone · r/developpeurs
- Vibe coding, IA… sur quoi se concentrer pour rester pertinent ? · r/developpeurs
Articles & ressources
- L'IA va-t-elle DÉTRUIRE le Métier de Développeur en 2026 ? · agence.digitalextension.fr
- L'avenir du métier de développeur web à l'ère de l'IA : crise passagère ou mutation profonde ? · lbke.fr
- Le grand bouleversement silencieux des développeurs · cinov.fr
- L'IA va-t-elle remplacer les développeurs d'ici 2036 ? · roboto.fr
- L'essor et le déclin des emplois de développeurs de logiciels · emploi.developpez.com
